Theoretical
physicist Michio Kaku believes Moore’s Law ~ the influential maxim predicting
the exponential increase in computing power ~ is finally breaking down. He’s talking
about the so-called law stating the number of transistors that can be fit on a
computer chip will double every two years, resulting in periodic increases in
computing power.
According to Kaku:
…in about ten years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s Law. In fact, already, already we see a slowing down of Moore’s Law. Computer power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology. Intel Corporation has admitted this.
Moore’s Law,
introduced by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965 was never a law in any scientific
sense. As others have pointed out, given Intel’s dominance in the chip industry
for much of the period in which Moore’s Law has applied (or appeared to),
there’s a self-fulfilling prophecy angle in which the dominant industry player
sets the pace for its own benefit.
1 comment:
Yes, an artificial construct. Also, the explosion of knowledge that accompanies computing power is very largely an explosion of crap...
However it can be observed that manure is useful as resource to new growing things. I suspect an outgrowth, and that in the end this period will be seen as almost completely transitional and temporary. This will be the view when the Grand Unified Theory is either a success or set aside as a chimera.
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